中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(4)：78-86,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20180106
基于LMDI的区域产业碳排放脱钩努力研究
Decoupling efforts of regional industrial development on CO2 emissions in China based on LMDI analysis
摘要
Abstract
With global warming increasing rapidly and the excessive exploitation of energy,finding a new economic growth pattern to replace the traditional high energy-consuming and high-polluting model has become urgent for sustainable development.The low-carbon economy has been widely recognized as the most dramatic change since the Industry Revolution.Low-carbon industry is not only the key component of low carbon development,but also an important model of transition to the low carbon economy.90％ of energy end-use takes place in the industrial sector of China,which has made carbon emission management becomes one of the most important factors in China's low-carbon economic policy.This paper applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method and Tapio index to carry on a decomposition analysis on the decoupling elasticity and effort index between regional industrial growth and CO2 emissions in China from 1996 to 2015.The results indicated that:① The industry-related CO2 emissions in all regions increased during the study period,of which the largest increase appeared in Hebei and Shandong located in the north coast area.The manufacture sector made up the largest percentage of the total emissions in 1996,while the transportation sector surpassed it as the largest contributor of carbon emissions in some regions in 2015.② For the whole country,‘ weak decoupling’ was the main characteristic during the 9th Five Year Plan period and 11 th Five Year Plan period and 12th Five Year Plan period,while ‘weak coupling’ was the main characteristic during the 10th Five Year Plan period.It should be noted that northwest area faced the issue of ‘ strong coupling’ during 12th Five Year Plan period.③All of the regions had made decoupling effort,of which the most significant effort occurred in Beijing,the worst happened in Qinghai and Ningxia.The decrease in energy intensity made significant contributions to the decoupling effort.The adjustments in energy structure and economic structure had not yet been fully effective,and even hindered the realization of decouple in some regions.The population effect never made the contributions to the decouple index,especially in the populated and developed regions.Hence,the adjustments in energy structure and economic structure are important means to achieve the decoupling effect between industrial growth and CO2 emissions for China in the future.关键词
区域产业增长/碳排放/脱钩/LMDIKey words
regional industrial growth/carbon emissions/decoupling/LMDI分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘博文,张贤,杨琳..基于LMDI的区域产业碳排放脱钩努力研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):78-86,9.基金项目
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“碳捕集、利用和封存(CCUS)关键技术装备清单与知识产权研究”(批准号:2014075) （CCUS）
中央高校基本科研专项基金项目“基于CO2价值链的CCUS商业模式研究”(批准号:2652017035) （批准号:2652017035）
中国博士后基金面上资助项目“基于实物期权的CCUS和可再生能源协同效应研究”(批准号:2017M620851). （批准号:2017M620851）
