中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(4)：117-124,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20180108
基于时间序列协整的中国新能源汽车政策评估
An evaluation of China's new energy vehicle policy: based on co-integration of time series
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,Chinese government has released a variety of preferential policies to promote the diffusion of new energy vehicles (NEVs),and has made remarkable achievements.During this process,the role of all kinds of policies is worth studying and summarizing.After reviewing the policies directly related to the sales and driving of NEVs in the past six years,two economic policies (purchase subsidies,and tax exemption) and two unique Chinese administrative policies (restriction on internal combustion engine vehicle purchase,and the abolishment of traffic restrictions) are selected as the assessment targets.Taking the monthly market share of the new energy passenger car as the dependent variable,the policy variables as the independent variables,adding the gasoline price and the patent number of the NEV industry as the control variables,we apply the time series co-integration model and the error correction model to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of policies.The results show that all the policies are in a long-term positive co-integration relationship with the NEV sales market share.Among them,the adjustment of the subsidy policy for each stage significantly boosts the promotion of marketing.The effect of the policy has been improved during constant learning and adaptation.It is notable that the purchase restriction policy adjusts supply and demand by suppressing demand for car purchases caused by a huge population base,thus affecting the choice of consumers,and promoting the sale of NEVs from the side.Policy of restriction on vehicle purchase is not only a positive long-term effect on NEVs sales,but also plays a stronger role in short-term.And this is the Granger cause of the increase in the market share of NEVs.Finally,it cannot be ignored that the long-term and short-term impacts of the progress of industrial technology on NEVs' diffusion are significant and positive.关键词
新能源汽车/政策评估/车辆限购/时间序列协整Key words
new energy vehicle/policy evaluation/restrictions on vehicles purchase/co-integration of time series分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马少超,范英..基于时间序列协整的中国新能源汽车政策评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):117-124,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“能源体系变革的规律与驱动机制研究”(批准号:71690245),“我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济影响分析”(批准号:71210005). （批准号:71690245）
