中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(4)：145-154,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20171103
节能减排与中国工业绿色增长的模拟预测
The simulation and prediction of energy conservation, emission reduction and green growth of China's industry
摘要
Abstract
We adopt the DDF and ML index to simulate and predict China industry green growth from 2015 to 2050.Through the 5 scenarios of energy consumption,and the design of 9 carbon dioxide emission reduction paths,this paper evaluates the impact of 45 policies on industrial potential output and loss to find the optimal path of energy conservation and emissions reduction (ECER).Based on this,we simulate and predict the trend of China industrial output growth and green productivity growth under the optimal path,and take the green total factor productivity (GTFP) as the standard to judge whether China industry can achieve win-win development,the main conclusions are:① From 2015 to 2050,ECER causes potential loss of overall industrial output while the net value of output growth is positive.We decide that 7％ growth rate of output,3.8％ growth rate of energy consumption and industry peaks CO2 emissions in 2040 is the optimal path of ECER.② Under the optimal path,the industrial GTFP grows 0.53％ and the GTFP of 29 subindustries keeps growing or at least not going back,so we can expect the prospect of win-win development.Initially,GTFP is driven by technical efficiency,and after the middle period,technological progress starts to release growth effect after accumulating,digesting and absorbing.Since 2035,the growth of GTFP will mainly depend on technological progress.③ The high energy consumption and high emission industries are the beneficiaries of ECER and other industries are not impaired by ECER.Compared with the moderate and low energy consumption (or emission) industries,the GTFP of high energy consumption (or emission) industries grows faster.In the early stage,the GTFP is influenced by negative technical efficiency and positive technological progress,and the technological progress becomes the main source of GTFP growth from the middle stage.关键词
节能减排/中国工业/绿色全要素生产率/方向性距离函数/模拟预测Key words
energy conservation and emissions reduction/China's industry/green total factor productivity/directional distance function/simulation and prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈超凡..节能减排与中国工业绿色增长的模拟预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):145-154,10.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金项目“中国工业能源效率及回弹效应研究”(批准号:2017M620026) （批准号:2017M620026）
北京师范大学青年教师基金项目“宏观能源效率及回弹效应研究”(批准号:310422107) （批准号:310422107）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“创新驱动中国工业绿色转型研究”(批准号:17YJA790025) （批准号:17YJA790025）
城市绿色发展科技战略研究北京市重点实验室项目(批准号:160151101). （批准号:160151101）
