中国水土保持科学2018，Vol.16Issue(2)：9-16,8.DOI:10.16843/j.sswc.2018.02.002
基于PEST的HSPF模型径流模拟优化
HSPF runoff simulation and optimization based on PEST automatic calibration
摘要
Abstract
[Background] In recent years,water cycle and water resource change have become more complicated due to the influence of climate change and human activities.Hydrological model is an approximate simulation of complex hydrological phenomena,which can realize the quantitative study of runoff.And parameter calibration is one of the most important steps in hydrological modeling.[Methods] In order to improve the calibration efficiency and simulation effect of the hydrological model,Hydrological Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF) used extensively for assessing water quantity issues was selected in this paper.The PEST automatic calibration model with single objective function (squared error of daily flow) and multi-objective functions (squared error of daily flow,squared error of monthly flow,squared error of exceedance flow time) were applied in HSPF model,and the squared error of daily flow was improved by separating wet and dry seasons.These calibration methods were compared with Shanmei Reservoir watershed,southeast China.[Results] 1) Multi-objective calibration performed better with respect to goodness-of-fit measures (NSE,R2,RMSE and PBIAS) than single objective calibration.In multi-objective calibration,the values of the NSE were above 0.79,the values of the R2 were above 0.80,the values of the PBIAS were between-10％ and 0％,and the values of the RMSE were ＜30 m3/s during the calibration and validation.2) In terms of the results of two multi-objective calibration methods,when the squared error of daily flows was improved by separating wet and dry seasons,the simulation results of daily and monthly runoff were significantly improved during the dry season.Taking daily runoff simulation for example,the values of the NSE increased from-0.04 and 0.43 to 0.25 and 0.54,the values of the R2 increased from 0.37 and 0.59 to 0.47 and 0.64,the values of the PBIAS increased from-33.57％ and-22.72％ to-24.52％ and-16.79％,and the values of the RMSE decreased from 9.54 m3/s and 8.89 m3/s to 8.06 m3/s and 7.96 m3/s during the calibration and validation,respectively.[Conclusions] The objective function has a great influence in the automatic calibration of parameters.Multi-objective calibration performed better with respect to the trend of runoff,total runoff,and flow duration curves than single objective calibration.When the squared error of daily flow is improved by separating wet and dry seasons,the problem of dry flow was neglected in traditional multi-objective calibration was solved and the simulation results of daily and monthly runoff were significantly improved during the dry season.关键词
HSPF/PEST/径流/率定Key words
HSPF/PEST/runoff/calibration分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨博,陈莹,陈兴伟,刘梅冰,高路..基于PEST的HSPF模型径流模拟优化[J].中国水土保持科学,2018,16(2):9-16,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金“土地利用变化对流域洪水风险的影响及其不确定性分析”(41301031) （41301031）
福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项“晋江流域非一致性洪水风险演变与归因”(2018R1101006-3) （2018R1101006-3）
