安徽农业科学2018，Vol.46Issue(10)：140-144,5.
2个数值模式在昆明地区气温预报中的准确率比较
Accuracy Comparison of Two Numerical Models in Temperature Prediction in Kunming
摘要
Abstract
From the aspects of different climatic zones and different seasons,the forecast accuracy and the average absolute error of daily maximum and minimum temperature of ECMWF and T639 model 2 m temperature forecast products with the forecast aging of 24 h from March 2012 to February 2013 was calculated.The results showed that the forecast accuracy of 2 ℃ error was significantly higher than that of the 1 ℃ error in the 2 m daily maximum and minimum temperature of two numerical model.For the forecast accuracy of 2 m daily maximum temperature,ECMWF model was higher than T639 model under the different climatic regions;the forecast accuracy of ECMWF model from high to low in turn for autumn,winter,summer,spring in different seasons;the forecast accuracy of T639 model from high to low in turn for autumn,summer,winter,spring in different seasons.For the forecast accuracy of 2 m daily minimum temperature,the forecast accuracy of T639 model was higher than ECMWF model under the regions of northern subtropics and mid-subtropics;the forecast accuracy of ECMWF model was higher than T639 model under the regions of south subtropics;The forecast accuracy of two numerical models presented same trends from high to low in turn for summer,autumn,spring,winter in different seasons.关键词
2m气温/预报准确率/绝对误差/检验Key words
2 m temperature/Forecast accuracy/Absolute error/Evaluation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邹阳,王将..2个数值模式在昆明地区气温预报中的准确率比较[J].安徽农业科学,2018,46(10):140-144,5.基金项目
昆明市气象局科技创新项目(昆气科字[2013]03). （昆气科字[2013]03）
