北京中医药大学学报2018，Vol.41Issue(5)：413-417,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2018.05.010
山西省痢疾发病趋势的时间序列分析
Time series analysis on incidence trend of dysentery in Shanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the feasibility and applicability of model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)in analysis and prediction on dysentery morbidity in Shanxi Prov-ince,and to provide decision basis for preventing and controlling dysentery.Methods SARIMA model was established based on monthly morbidity of dysentery from Jan.2004 to Dec.2013 by using R3.3.1 software,and the predictive effect of the model was verified with monthly morbidity of dysentery in 2014. Results SARIMA model(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12fitted very well with the monthly dysentery morbidity in Shanxi Province,and the residuals of the model were white noise sequence.The relative error between predicted and actual values at a range from 0.909% to 35.575% and average relative error was 13.399%.Conclusion SARIMA model can well reflect the incidence trend of dysentery and predict the morbidity of dysentery in a short term in Shanxi Province.关键词
时间序列/SARIMA模型/痢疾/预测Key words
time series/model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average/dysentery/predic-tion分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
韩玲,颜隆,郝宇,科尔沁夫,王鸿,贺娟..山西省痢疾发病趋势的时间序列分析[J].北京中医药大学学报,2018,41(5):413-417,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81574098)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81574098) （No.81574098）
