财经理论与实践2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：120-126,7.
中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究
The Analysis of the Tendency of the Terms-of-Trade in China——Research Based on the monthly data of 1993-2017
摘要
Abstract
The fluctuation of the levels of three kinds of Terms of Trade(TOT)in China dur-ing January 1993-November 2017 presents differently.The Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT) fluctuated significantly and the Standard Deviation is 6.0 during this period.After the increases of the Income Terms of Trade (ITT)in 20 years,the level of ITT has declined 15%~20% com-paring to the top level during the last three years.The Factor Terms of Trade (FTT)has been risen fast and the Standard Deviation is 6 6.2 during this period.The NBTT changed significantly as a great change of the exchange rate of CNY.The NBTT increased as soon as the revaluation of the CNY but declined after a short period.The level of NBTT declined in a long period as the sharp devaluation of CNY after a short period.The NBTT increased while the foreign countries faced with the international economic or financial crisis but China was in the period of healthful economic development.Therefore,three measures we suggest to improve the TOT and the eco-nomic welfare are as follows:first,reforming the exchange rate regime in order to keep the level of exchange rate of CNY with its equilibrium level;second,decreasing the production of some products;and lastly,raising the degree of international division of labor in China.关键词
贸易条件/价格贸易条件/收入贸易条件/要素贸易条件Key words
Terms of Trade (TOT)/Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT)/Income Terms of Trade (ITT)/Factor Terms of Trade (FTT)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马红霞,舒丽媛..中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究[J].财经理论与实践,2018,39(3):120-126,7.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJA790150) （09YJA790150）
