广东电力2018，Vol.31Issue(5)：7-14,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2018.005.002
广东CO2排放量影响因素分析及峰值预测
Analysis on Influence Factors on CO2 Emissions of Guangdong Province and Peak Value Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
In order to analyze influence factors on CO2 emissions of Guangdong province and forecast peak value of CO2 e-missions,this paper comprehensively considers factor including energy structure,energy efficiency,population and economy scales,and adopts the logarithmic mean weigh division (LMDI)method to analyze influence factors on the unit GDP CO2 e-mission of Guangdong province from 1990 to 2014. It also makes cross-regional comparison on the unit GDP CO2 emission of Guangdong province in 2010 with that of other provinces and then adopts environment Kuznets curve to forecast the peak value of CO2 emission of Guangdong province. Corresponding results indicate that compared with other provinces,the unit GDP CO2 emission of Guangdong province is lower on the whole which is mainly due to great raise of energy use efficiencies of heavy industries,and the effect of economic outputs of heavy industries on the unit GDP CO2 emission declines year by year. Meanwhile,the very important reason for driving the unit GDP CO2 emissions decline is transformation of energy use way from relying on coal and oil to depending on multi-energy resources. Under the current low carbon policy,it is predicted that the peak value of per capita CO2 emission will be reached in 2020. Finally,it presents relevant policy suggestions.关键词
CO2排放量/LMDI/环境库兹涅茨曲线/峰值Key words
CO2 emission/logarithmic mean weigh division/environment Kuznets curve/peak value分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
陈震,刘雨豪,廖宇晗,李爱军,蔡国田,赵黛青..广东CO2排放量影响因素分析及峰值预测[J].广东电力,2018,31(5):7-14,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFE0102500) （2016YFE0102500）
中国科学院重点实验室开发基金项目(Y607k61001) （Y607k61001）
