广东电力2018，Vol.31Issue(5)：49-55,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2018.005.008
电网风险量化评估方法与管控实践
Risk Quantification Assessment Method and Management Control Practice of Power Grid
摘要
Abstract
It is very important to realize risk quantitative assessment and management control for the power grid so as to en-sure safe operation of the power grid. Therefore,this paper states the risk quantitative assessment model based on hazard i-dentification which includes quantitative computation expressions of risk hazard consequences and probabilities of risk occur-rence. With regard to calculation of probability of risk occurrence for the basic risk assessment,the three level fault classifi-cation principle of Guidelines for Safety and Stability of Power Systems is adopted and corresponding requirements of the guidelines are deepened and quantified. Taking the operation mode of summer peak of Shenzhen power grid in 2017 as an example,the paper sorts out basic risk and quantifies risk levels,analyzes and identifies probable potential hazards of Shenz-hen power grid and proposes relevant risk control measures involving power grid planning and basic construction projects, technical improvement projects,operation mode adjustment,operation and maintenance of equipment,and so on so as to effectively reduce operation risks of the power grid. It finally summarizes a set of closed loop management control mecha-nism for the basic risk to ensure safe operation of the power grid.关键词
电网风险/量化评估/基准风险/安全运行/风险管控Key words
power grid risk/quantitative assessment/basic risk/safe operation/risk management control分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
卢艺,卢苑,何晓峰,林舜江,刘明波..电网风险量化评估方法与管控实践[J].广东电力,2018,31(5):49-55,7.基金项目
深圳供电局有限公司科技项目(SZ-KJXM-20160209) （SZ-KJXM-20160209）
