工业技术经济2018，Vol.37Issue(6)：78-83,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2018.06.010
宏观经济周期与产业发展周期的动态变迁识别
Dynamic Change Identification of Macro Economic Cycle and Industrial Development Cycle
方齐云 1熊韵坚1
作者信息
- 1. 华中科技大学经济学院,武汉 430074
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The cyclical fluctuation of the economy is a common phenomenon.It is of great significance to deeply grasp the development characteristics of Chinese macro economy and the three major industries.Based on the real growth rate data from 1979 to 2015, this paper uses the MS model to measure the dynamic evolution process of Chinese macro economy and the three major in-dustries economy.The study finds that: ( 1) Chinese macro economic cycle and development cycle of three major industries had re-markable structural change in 1994, the speed of the macro economy and the industrial development reduced at the turning point;( 2) the macro economic cycle developed rapidly in different period; ( 3) the synergy degree of the macro economic cycle and the three industrial cycle varies a lot, inter-industry development is not balanced.In view of this, relevant departments should be a-ware of the serious imbalance in the development of three industries and take some measures to tackle the downward risk of the econ-omy.关键词
经济周期/产业发展周期/结构转变点/MS模型/三大产业/宏观经济Key words
business cycle/industrial development cycle/structure change point/MS model/the three major industries/macro economy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
方齐云,熊韵坚..宏观经济周期与产业发展周期的动态变迁识别[J].工业技术经济,2018,37(6):78-83,6.
