农业现代化研究2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：395-404,10.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0021
玉米价格变动对主产区农民福利的波及效应
Influences of corn price fluctuations on farmers'welfare in main corn production areas
摘要
Abstract
In recent years, China's corn price fluctuated often and had significant impacts on farmers' welfare. Based on the compensation principle of welfare economics and a panel data of 20 main corn production provinces in China from 2001 to 2015, and applying the path analysis and the system GMM estimation methods, this paper analyzed the corn supply and demand model of farmers' subjective initiative and the objective environment to estimate the impact of corn price fluctuation on farmers' production, consumption and total welfare in the main production areas. Results show that: the change of corn price is in the same direction with farmers' production welfare and in the opposite direction with farmers' consumption welfare. Along with the agricultural supply-side structural reform advancement, the welfare of farmers in main production provinces drops significantly with obvious differences among different provinces. The different comparative advantages of different provinces have important but distinct impacts on farmers' planting enthusiasm. This research also finds that the planting structure and urbanization level are important factors affecting corn price. The impact of total factor productivity on corn production is not prominent. Based on the above results, this paper proposes the following policy suggestions: strengthening the macro-control of food prices and improving agricultural subsidy policy, actively cultivating new-type professional farmers, building more production supporting facilities and enhancing social security services in the main production areas, guiding the rational adjustment of corn planting structure and value-added processing, and supporting the development and the promotion of high technology.关键词
玉米价格/玉米主产区/农民福利/路径分析法/系统GMMKey words
corn price/main corn production area/farmers/welfare/path analysis/system GMM model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张哲晰,穆月英..玉米价格变动对主产区农民福利的波及效应[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):395-404,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300210) （2016YFD0300210）
国家自然科学基金项目(71773121) （71773121）
现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2018).The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300210) （BAIC01-2018）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(71773121) （71773121）
Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System of Beijing(BAIC01-2018). （BAIC01-2018）
