农业现代化研究2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：405-413,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0007
价格支持政策背景下中国小麦市场区域动态关联分析
Dynamic integration analysis of wheat markets in China under the background of price support policy
摘要
Abstract
The degree of correlation among regional markets can delegate the degree of market integration, and it is an important indicator to illustrate overall market performance. It has great significance to improve the market efficiency through well understanding the correlation and dynamic volatility of wheat markets in different regions of China under the background of price support policy. Based on regional weekly wheat price data and applying the Bayesian DCC-GARCH Model, this paper empirically analyzed the price fluctuation characteristics and dynamic integration among different regional wheat markets and discussed the behind causes and the influencing factors. Results show that the price volatilities in policy implemented areas were more stable and also more susceptible to the previous period. The correlation among different regional wheat markets still need to be improved in China. The correlation index between Hebei and Shandong and the one between Hebei and Tianjin were relatively higher compared to others, which were 0.265 and 0.257, respectively. Over 1/3 of the correlation indices were above 0.2. The implementation of the price support policy did increase the correlation among different regional markets and improved wheat market integration. In addition, location, geographic proximity, the relative concentration of production areas and government intervenes were also important influencing factors for market integration. Therefore, this paper suggests: to continue the minimum purchasing price policy in the short term with a reasonable target price level, to improve the logistic facilities of wheat markets to increase circulation efficiency, and to continuously improve market mechanism to promote the specialization and scale development of grain production and processing.关键词
小麦/价格波动/价格支持政策/动态关联性/贝叶斯DCC-GARCH模型Key words
wheat/price volatility/price support policy/dynamic correlation/the Bayesian DCC-GARCH model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李雪,韩一军,付文阁..价格支持政策背景下中国小麦市场区域动态关联分析[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):405-413,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(17AJY019) （17AJY019）
国家现代农业产业技术体系资助项目(CARS-03-08B).Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(17AJY019) （CARS-03-08B）
China Agriculture Research System(CARS-03-08B) （CARS-03-08B）
