农业现代化研究2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：414-423,10.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0009
贸易开放下大麦进口价格对中国啤酒进出口的影响——基于空间面板模型的实证研究
The influence of barley import price on China's beer trade with trade liberalization: An empirical study based on the spatial panel data model
摘要
Abstract
Analyzing the impact of barley import price on China's beer trade is of great significance for reducing barley import dependence, enhancing international competitiveness of beer and alleviating beer import pressure. Based on the import and export data of China's barley and beer from 2001 to 2015 and applying the regional fixed effect Spatial Durbin Model, this paper analyzed the influencing factors of barley imports and beer trade. Results show that barley import has been increasing continuously, and the concentration degree of import market was high. The mean value of barley's trade competition index was -0.98, and the international competitiveness of China's barley was weak. China's beer import was also increasing significantly. However, China's beer export growth was slow with an unstable export market. The mean value of beer's trade competition index was -0.42, and the international competitiveness of China's beer was weak. China's beer import volume increased rapidly and showed a significant negative spatial correlation in China's beer import model. Import price of Australian barley had a significant positive impact on China's beer import and barley price had less influence than that of the GDP of the exporting country and China's per capita GDP. This research also found that there was a significant positive spatial correlation in China's beer export model. The import price of Australian barley had a significant negative impact on the export of China's beer, but its influence on China's beer export was insignificant. Policy implications of this paper include increasing the yield of domestic barley, improving the linkages among the barley industry chains and strengthening the macro-control of barley trade.关键词
大麦/啤酒/贸易/国际竞争力/Moran'sI指数/空间面板模型Key words
barley/beer/trade/international competitiveness/Moran's I index/spatial panel model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李京栋,李先德,孙致陆..贸易开放下大麦进口价格对中国啤酒进出口的影响——基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):414-423,10.基金项目
国家大麦青稞产业技术体系专项经费项目(CARS-05) （CARS-05）
国家自然科学基金项目(71473253) （71473253）
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2016-06).China Agriculture Research System(CARS-05) （ASTIP-IAED-2016-06）
National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(71473253) （71473253）
The Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(ASTIP-IAED-2016-06). （ASTIP-IAED-2016-06）
