工程科学与技术2018，Vol.50Issue(3)：46-53,8.DOI:10.15961/j.jsuese.201800332
基于贝叶斯网络的梯级水库群漫坝风险分析
Risk Analysis of Dam Overtopping for Cascade Reservoirs Based on Bayesian Network
摘要
Abstract
Existing dam risk analysis methods are suitable largely for a single reservoir/dam and the influence of uncertainty on risk assessment result is not taken into consideration.To overcome these limitations,the Bayesian network theory which can effectively deal with the uncertainty problem was adopted to study the risk of dam failure in a cascade reservoir group.In combination of statistics data and experts' experiences,ex-treme flood,upstream dam-break flood and strong earthquake were identified as the key risk factors of dam overtopping. Bayesian risk analysis network models of dam overtopping for a single reservoir and successive dam breaking for two cascade reservoirs under single or compound ef-fects of extreme flood,earthquake and upstream dam-break flood were established and used to analyze dam overtopping risk of Houziyan and Changheba,two successive cascade reservoirs in the Dadu river basin,southwestern China.Results show that the overtopping risk magnitudes of cascaded reservoirs under single and compound effects of risk sources are relatively low,and the magnitude of overtopping risk caused by up-stream dam-break flood of Houziyan is the least,which is correlated with characteristics of the upstream Shuangjiangkou reservoir,a control cas-cade in the basin. Both Houziyan and Changheba reservoirs are identified as weak cascades,and their main leading risk factors are excessive flood and strong earthquake,which can serve as an important support for formulating systemic risk prevention and control measures. Validity and prac-ticability of the proposed model were verified through the case study.The solving process was fast and effective,and the identification of the risk factors correlation and the weak cascade reservoir was intuitive and clear. Using model analyses,risk change of cascade reservoirs under single and compound effects of risk sources can be obtained in time and corresponding risk decisions can be made,which is beneficial to rapid develop-ment of follow-up risk management and provides a new research way for risk analysis research in hydraulic and hydropower engineering.关键词
风险分析/贝叶斯网络/梯级水库/漫坝/洪水/地震Key words
risk analysis/Bayesian network/cascade reservoirs/dam overtopping/flood/earthquake分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
林鹏智,陈宇..基于贝叶斯网络的梯级水库群漫坝风险分析[J].工程科学与技术,2018,50(3):46-53,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(青年科学基金)(41501554) （青年科学基金）
"政府间国际科技创新合作"重点专项资助项目(2016YFE0122500) （2016YFE0122500）
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB036401) （973计划）
