气象2018，Vol.44Issue(2)：277-283,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.02.007
2009-2015年ECMWF热带气旋集合预报的检验及分析
Verification and Analysis on Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from 2009 to 2015
摘要
Abstract
The verification and analysis on tropical cyclone (TC) ensemble forecast of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over western North Pacific in 2009-2015 are given from four aspects.The results show that the capability of ensemble forecast on TC tracks has been improving annually,but the intensity forecasting is always weak.The stronger the TCs are,the more accurate the ensemble forecasts of TC moving speed and moving direction are,though the forecasted speed is slow and the forecasted direction turning leftwards exists,whereas the forecasted intensity is weaker.On the other hand,the steering flow of TCs is classified into three grades.When the steering flow is weak,the TC moves slowly,and the direction forecasting is uncertain;when the steering flow is strong,the TC moving direction forecasting is reliable,but the speed forecasting is not good enough.As to the TCs over South China Sea classified according to three different types of tracks,the speed and direction ensemble forecasting errors would be small in westerly and northwesterly tracks,but would be large in westerly to northerly tracks.For the TC with westerly to northerly tracks,the direction forecasting has large spread before turning northerly,while the moving direction would be stable after turning northerly.关键词
热带气旋/欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)/集合预报/检验Key words
tropical cyclone (TC)/European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)/ensemble forecast/examination分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨国杰,沙天阳,程正泉..2009-2015年ECMWF热带气旋集合预报的检验及分析[J].气象,2018,44(2):277-283,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFC1404700)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-051)、国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAK11B01)、中国气象局创新团队(CMACXTD001-3)和广东省气象局科技创新团队(201504)共同资助 （2017YFC1404700）
