气象2018，Vol.44Issue(2)：284-293,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.02.008
2016年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoons in Western North Pacific in 2016
摘要
Abstract
The characteristics of typhoons in western North Pacific in 2016 are analyzed by using the besttrack data,the CMA operational forecast data and ECMWF NWP and EPS products.The results show that no typhoon formed in the first half year but many were seen in the midsummer and autumn.This phenomenon was related to the conversion from E1 Ni(n)o to La Ni(n)a of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST.In some cases,the TC track forecast errors for long lead-time are extremely large,which attributes to the large spread of EPS.To improve the TC track forecasting skill,the regularity of systematic bias of numerical models could be found.The TC intensity forecast error for 24 h is larger than 5 m · s-1,which is unusual for the past decade.For individual cases,the extreme errors are 20-26 m · s-1.Almost no improvement in the TC intensity forecast skill over the recent decades.The main reason is the lack of reliable objective intensity forecasting technique.The qualitative analysis of the intensity change is not enough in the operation.So,it is urgent to establish a quantitative and fine forecast method on TC intensity to improve the TC forecast skill.关键词
台风活动特征/海表温度/预报误差/预报难点Key words
characteristics of typhoons/sea surface temperature (SST)/forecast error/forecast difficulty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
高拴柱,董林,许映龙,钱奇峰..2016年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析[J].气象,2018,44(2):284-293,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575063和41675044)共同资助 （41575063和41675044）
