气象2018，Vol.44Issue(2)：326-333,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.02.013
2017年9-11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasting by T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2017
摘要
Abstract
The medium-range forecasting performances of T639,ECMWF and Japan (JP) models from September to November 2017 are verified and compared.The results show that all the three models could predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes well.The ECMWF model has good performance in predicting activities of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) while the T639 model predicts the position of WPSH further north.For temperature at 850 hPa,mean forecast error by ECMWF model is smaller than by other two models.The T639 (JP) model gives lower (higher) temperature forecast than the observation respectively.As far as Typhoon Mawar is concerned,all the three models predict its position more northwest and strength weaker.However,the ECM-WF model could show the direction change of this typhoon.The ECMWF model performs much better in forecasting the intensity of cold high pressure during a cold air process while the T639 and Japan models create greater errors.关键词
T639模式/ECMWF模式/日本模式/中期天气预报/天气学检验Key words
T639 model/ECMWF model/Japan model/medium-range forecast/synoptic verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尹姗,任宏昌..2017年9-11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2018,44(2):326-333,8.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B07)资助 （2015BAC03B07）
