长江科学院院报2018，Vol.35Issue(4)：60-66,7.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20161186
致灾因素耦合作用下堆积体斜坡失稳概率研究
Preliminary Study on Failure Probabilities of Deposit Slope under Coupled Multi-factors
摘要
Abstract
Deposit slope,which widely distributes in southeast Tibet with complex climate condition and harsh geo logical condition,poses large potential risk due to multiple extreme factors.To investigate into the effect of complex environment on slope failure,a hazard evaluation method in consideration of coupled multiple triggering factors is proposed.The probability and return period of triggered events of different hazard levels are analyzed,and on this basis,the failure probability corresponding to different events is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation techniques.In the meantime,the stochastic characteristic of triggering factors and the uncertainty involved in the inducing process are considered.Furthermore,multiple factors are coupled with the law of total probability,thus the hazard degree and potential risk of deposit slope can be comprehensively assessed.Earthquake and rainfall,as two explicit scenarios,are incorporated into a real engineering case as an example.The results suggest that the hazard level of the case is moderate;and in general,when the combination of triggering factors gets more extreme,the comprehensive haz ard level is smaller.关键词
堆积体斜坡/回归周期/失稳概率/降雨诱发/地震诱发/蒙特卡罗模拟Key words
deposit slope/return period/probability of failure/rainfall-induced landslide/earthquake-induced landslide/Monte Carlo simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈语,李天斌,曾鹏..致灾因素耦合作用下堆积体斜坡失稳概率研究[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(4):60-66,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41602304) （41602304）
