气象2018，Vol.44Issue(3)：341-350,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.03.001
从物理模型到智能分析——降低天气预报不确定性的新探索
From Physical Model to Intelligent Analysis: A New Exploration to Reduce the Uncertainty of Weather Forecast
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the development of weather forecast technology is reviewed.Owing to people's creativity and wisdom,the atmospheric evolution processes can be solved by modern mathematical and physical methods of model equations instead of merely judgement based on experience in the past.However,the complicated weather and climate systems still pose challenges to nonlinear uncertainty problems.The artificial intelligence (AI) technologies may contribute to address the challenges.This paper introduces some initial assumptions and development of AI in observation and identification,data processing,short-term and nowcast forecasting,model parameterization and integrated analysis of forecast products and so on,indicating the way forward of further research and development and their contribution.关键词
人工智能/物理模型/不确定性/天气预报Key words
artificial intelligence (AI)/physical model/uncertainty/weather forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
许小峰..从物理模型到智能分析——降低天气预报不确定性的新探索[J].气象,2018,44(3):341-350,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(91637211)资助 （91637211）
