水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(5)：16-24,9.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.05.003
基于MIKE BASIN的水资源合理配置方案对比分析——以长吉经济圈为例
Mike Basin-based comparative analysis on scheme for reasonable allocation of water resources——a case of Changchun-Jilin Economic Circle
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problem of insufficient water resources within parts of the Northeast China and taking Changchun-Jilin economical circle as the study case,the water demand predictions are made for the target years of planning of 2020 and 2030 with the methods of grey correlation analysis combined with multivariable linear regression model by taking 2015 as the base year,so as to realize the reasonable allocation and dispatch in that region in the coming 20 years,from which three different water resources allocation schemes under the restriction of the maximization of water supply,the maximization of economic benefit as well as the dual-index of gross amount of water consumption and water-use efficiency are respectively proposed,while the relevant simulations are made through the water resources allocation model established with MIKE BASIN.The result shows that under the consideration of the eco-basic flow of river,the water demand for the long-term sustainable economic and social development of the study region can be satisfied through the strict control of the dual-index scheme of the gross amount of water consumption and the water-use efficiency.The gross water demand is to be 29.461 × 108m3 in the study region by 2020,in which only the industrial water shortage of Jilin City is to be 2 397 × 104m3.The gross water demand is to be 33.122 × 108m3by 2030,while the shortages of small amount of water are to be there for the industries in Changchun City and Jiutai District,the agriculture and industry in Shuangyang District,the industry in Gongzhuling City and the agriculture and industry of Jilin City with the water shortages of 750 × 104m3 、320 × 104m3 、228 × 104m3 、152 × 104m3 、460 × 104m3 、4 280 × 104m3 、1 070 × 104m3respectively,however,the water shortages are to be largely reduced if compared with those before the optimization of the allocation scheme.The study result has a certain guiding significance for the sustainable utilization of the water resources within the region for the coming 20 years.关键词
长吉经济圈/MIKE BASIN/合理配置/对比分析Key words
Changchun-Jilin economic circle/Mike Basin/reasonable allocation/comparative analysis分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
戚琳琳,张博,赖乔枫,冯茜,任宪军,梁秀娟..基于MIKE BASIN的水资源合理配置方案对比分析——以长吉经济圈为例[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(5):16-24,9.基金项目
中国地质调查局沈阳地质调查中心“长吉经济圈地质环境综合调查”项目(121201007000150012) （121201007000150012）
国家自然基金(41572216) （41572216）
省校共建计划专项——前沿科技引导类(SXGJQY2017-6) （SXGJQY2017-6）
