水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(5)：57-62,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.05.009
基于小波EGM-ISFLA-SVR的大坝变形组合预测模型
Wavelet EGM-ISFLA-SVR-based hybrid prediction model for dam deformation
摘要
Abstract
In order to enhance the prediction capacity of dam deformation monitoring model,fully mine the measured data of dam deformation and acquire the operation condition of the dam in time,a wavelet EGM-ISFLA-SVM-based hybrid prediction model for dam deformation is proposed herein.In the hybrid model,the wavelet analysis is applied to denoise and then to extract the time dependent component of the deformation monitoring series and the integrated effect component composed by the components of water pressure and temperature at first;afterwards,modelling and prediction are made for both the serieses with the mean value generating GM (1,1) model and the ISFLA-SVR model respectively;finally,the hybrid model is obtained via the wavelet reconstruction.The effect of the model is verified through the relevant engineering case,in which several indexes are adopted to be compared with the fitting accuracy and prediction accuracy of the conventional statistical model.The result shows that the hybrid model has even larger multi-correlation coefficient and even smaller mean square error than those of the statistical model when fitting,while all the mean square error,the mean absolute percent error and the mean absolute error are smaller than those of the statistical model as well when prediction;which indicates that the model has enven higher fitting and prediction accuracies and even stronger generalization capacity.关键词
变形预测/小波分析/混合蛙跳算法/支持回归机/灰色系统Key words
deformation prediction/wavelet analysis/shuffled frog leaping algorithm/support vector regression machine/grey system分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
李涧鸣,包腾飞,高瑾瑾,卢远富,杨光..基于小波EGM-ISFLA-SVR的大坝变形组合预测模型[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(5):57-62,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601) （2016YFC0401601）
国家自然科学基金(51579086,51739003,51479054,51379068,41323001) （51579086,51739003,51479054,51379068,41323001）
江苏省杰出青年基金(BK20140039) （BK20140039）
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(水利工程)(YS11001) （水利工程）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2015B33614,2017B40214) （2015B33614,2017B40214）
