中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(5)：49-57,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20171209
基于偏离份额分析的中国区域间产业转移与污染转移的定量测度
Quantitative measure on inter-regional industry transfer and pollution transfer based on the idea of shift share analysis
摘要
Abstract
In the background of changing the mode of economic development,the regional industry transference has become one important method of Chinese regional policies which focused on regional coordinating development.It is an important strategic issue of how to promote industry transference orderly and regional coordinating development fairly based on the trend and law between China's interregional industry transfer and pollution transfer.Based on the basic idea of deviation-share analysis method,this paper constructed an improved model of regional industrial transfer and pollution transfer and used the data of industrial added value,industrial carbon emission,industrial COD emission,industrial solid waste production and industrial SO2 emission in 30 provinces and cities from 1998 to 2014,to quantitatively measure inter-regional industry transfer and pollution transfer from 1998 to 2014.The results suggested:①In terms of time dimension,China's industries were mainly concentrated in the eastern region in 1998-2005.Since 2005,China's eastern region had been expanding its industrial scale to the central and western regions,but the transfer speed had been slowing down since 2012.②In the direction of transfer,China's industrial transfer did not follow the gradient step by step and the gradient deviates,and some industries preferred western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Sichuan.③From the provincial level,according to the changes in the total amount of industrial transfer in the provinces from 1998 to 2014,China's industrial transfer could be divided into three categories:the industrial transfer-out zone,the strong industrial transfer-in zone,and the weak industrial transfer-in zone.④At the same time,in the process of industrial transfer,most of provinces and cities in central and eastern China were net transfer-out regions,and most of western provinces had become the main area to carry on the pollution transfer,among which,Xinjiang,Yunnan,Inner Mongolia and Qinghai were the high pollution transfer areas.According to the above analysis,in view of the phenomenon that the western region becomes China's pollution shelter,it is suggested that the central government should further exert its macro-control ability,formulate scientific industrial policies,and give play to its own advantages.At the same time,we should set up a mechanism of coordinated environmental governance across regions to enhance the ability of environmental governance in the western region.关键词
偏离—份额分析/产业转移/污染转移/定量测度Key words
shift-share analysis method/industrial transfer/pollution transfer/quantitatively measure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
成艾华,赵凡..基于偏离份额分析的中国区域间产业转移与污染转移的定量测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(5):49-57,9.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目“中国产业集群地图系统(CCM)建设与应用研究”(批准号:17ZDA055). （CCM）
