中国人兽共患病学报2017，Vol.33Issue(8)：674-679,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2017.08.002
间日疟疫情与气象因素的广义相加模型研究
Generalized additive model of Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence and meteorological factors
摘要
Abstract
This paper aims to find out the impacts of meteorological factors on malaria transmission by exploring the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors in Tengchong county,so as to develop malaria control strategy.Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence data and meteorological data including monthly mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,rainfall,relative humidity,and minimum humidity in Tengchong County,Yunnan from 2005 to 2010 were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and China Meteorological Administration.The correlation between malaria incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis.The generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to investigate the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors.Results showed that there was a weak positive correlation between minimum temperature,mean relative humidity as well as minimum relative humidity and local malaria incidences.While a complex nonlinear relationship between the vectorial capacity,relative humidity and the incidence of malaria was detected.Malaria transmission increases when the vectorial capacity was greater than 10 (VCAP＞10) or the average relative humidity was between 55％ and 70％.The malaria transmission declines when relative humidity above 70％.The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of local malaria is well explained by GAM,and there is a complex nonlinear relationship between vectorial capacity,relative humidity and malaria incidence.关键词
疟疾/广义相加模型/气象因素/媒介能量Key words
malaria/generalized additive model/meteorological factor/vectorial capacity分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
郑金鑫,史本云,杨国静..间日疟疫情与气象因素的广义相加模型研究[J].中国人兽共患病学报,2017,33(8):674-679,6.基金项目
Supported by the International Development Research Center (No.105509-00001002-024&108100-001),the National Natural Science of China (No.81573261),the Jiangsu Provinicial Department of Science and Technology Project (No.BM2015024),and the National Science and Technology Major project (No.2012ZX10004-220)国际发展研究中心(IDCR)(No.105509-00001002-024&108100-001),国家自然科学基金(No.81573261),江苏省科技厅项目(No.BM2015024)和国家科技计划(No.2012ZX10004-220)联合资助. （No.105509-00001002-024&108100-001）
