中国岩溶2018，Vol.37Issue(2)：228-237,10.DOI:10.11932/karst20180209
基于SDSM的珠江中上游气候模拟及未来情景预估
Simulation of future scenarios of climate change in the middle and upper reaches of the Peal River using the Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM)
摘要
Abstract
Due to the vulnerability and sensitivity of the karst eco-system,the prediction of future climate change in the karst area has great significance to reasonably exploit the regional resources and effectively pro-tect the ecological environment.However,the research on the climate downscaling in the karst area is nearly blank.In this paper,the daily mean temperature and daily precipitation from 13 meteorological stations in the Hongliujiang zone of the Pearl River Basin during 1961-2001 were used as the predictors.Moreover,the NCEP reanalysis data was used as the forecast factor.The SDSM model was applied to predict the trends of temperature and precipitation in future years under SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the HadCM3 mod-el.The results show that,(1)SDSM mode can be applied in the accurate simulation of the temperature and precipitation in the study area,and the deterministic coefficient of observation and simulation value is about 99％ and 65％ respectively;(2)Compared with the reference period,the future temperature and precipitati-on in the A2 and B2 scenarios show a clear upward trend until the end of the 21 th century,and the increment is increasing with time prolonged.Meanwhile,by the end of 21th century,the relative variation of the future mean annual temperature in the A2 and B2 scenarios are + 3.39 ℃ and + 2.49 ℃ respectively,and the 117.30 ％ and 80.90 ％ growth respectively in daily precipitation under the A2 and B2 scenarios;(3)The rise of temperature is the most obvious in autumn and spring,and the precipitation increase is the largest in summer.Therefore,this analysis not only provides the foundation data and the theoretical basis for setting strategies,but also has great significance for impact study of climate changes in karst areas.关键词
气候变化/珠江中上游/统计降尺度/SDSM/情景分析Key words
climate change/middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River/statistical downscaling/SDSM/scenario analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
许燕,王世杰,白晓永,李雄耀,史晓明,田义超,吴路华..基于SDSM的珠江中上游气候模拟及未来情景预估[J].中国岩溶,2018,37(2):228-237,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0502300、2016YFC0502102) （2016YFC0502300、2016YFC0502102）
国家973计划(2013CB956700) （2013CB956700）
国家科技支撑计划(2014BAB03B02) （2014BAB03B02）
国家自然科学基金(U1612441、41571130074&1571130042) （U1612441、41571130074&1571130042）
贵州省农业攻关计划(2014-3039 （）
中国科学院院地合作项目2014-3) （）
贵阳市科技攻关计划(2012-205) （2012-205）
