水力发电2018，Vol.44Issue(6)：38-43,6.
西江下游年月径流变了化特征研究
Characteristics of Annual and Monthly Runoff Variation in Xijiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Mann-Kendall method,sliding T-test method,R/S analysis method and wavelet analysis method are used to analyze the mutations,trends and periodicity characteristics of the runoff from 1950 to 2015 in Wuzhou Hydrological Station in the lower reaches of Xijiang River and the trend of monthly runoff change.The results show that,(a) the annual average flow of 66a has no significant decreasing trend,and will keep decreasing trend for a period of time in the future;(b) from the point of accumulated anomalies,the runoff of Xijiang River will be in an increasing phase from 8 to 10a after 2014;(c) the annual variation of inner diameter flow is a good trend of peak filling and dry feeding,however,the monthly runoff only in July is on the rise which is worth paying attention to;(d) annual runoff occurs moderate variation in 1954,and turning point in 2002 with no significant variation,and (e) according to the Morlet wavelet analysis,there are 3 time scale periodic variations such as 22a,15a and 5a.It is predicted that the runoff in the lower reaches of Xijiang River will be in a dry period in 22-year-scale but in a wet period in 15-year-scale during 2015-2020.关键词
径流变化/M-K法/滑动T检验法/R/S分析法/小波分析法/西江Key words
runoff change/Mann-Kendall method/sliding T-test/R/S analysis method/wavelet analysis method/Xijiang River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈立华,刘为福,张利娜..西江下游年月径流变了化特征研究[J].水力发电,2018,44(6):38-43,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助(2017YFC0405900) （2017YFC0405900）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51469002,51009029) （51469002,51009029）
广西重点研发项目(桂科AB16380284) （桂科AB16380284）
广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFBA139218) （2015GXNSFBA139218）
