水力发电2018，Vol.44Issue(6)：62-66,70,6.
考虑渗流时滞及参数不确定性的土坝坝坡失稳概率分析
Probability Analysis of Slope Instability of Earth-rock Dam Considering Seepage Delay and Parameter Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
In view of the problem of slope stability of earth-rock dam under complex seepage field and uneven distribution of dam shell material with non constant hydraulic boundary,a new instability probability analysis method for dam slope with uncertain flow time delay and parameter uncertainty is proposed.Based on Van Genuchten seepage model,shear strength theory and Bishop method,the analytical formula and reliability function of the stability and safety coefficient of non-homogeneous dam slope are derived by combining with the time-dependent characteristics of seepage field and its hydraulic boundary.Based on GeoStudio platform and Kriging model,a non-invasive stochastic finite element model for dam slope stability and reliability of earth-rock dam is established and related calculation programs are developed.The engineering example analysis shows that the results of above method are closer to the actual operation status of dam than the method in specification.Compared with Monte Carlo method,proposed method has obvious advantages in terms of calculation time and convergence.The proposed method can also be applied to analyze the stability reliability of complex slope under different hydraulic boundary conditions.关键词
坝坡失稳/渗流滞后/不确定参数/土石坝Key words
instability of dam slope/seepage lag/uncertain parameter/earth-rock dam分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
徐镇凯,蔡磊,魏博文,王锋..考虑渗流时滞及参数不确定性的土坝坝坡失稳概率分析[J].水力发电,2018,44(6):62-66,70,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569014,51669013,51779115,51409139) （51569014,51669013,51779115,51409139）
江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2016-S093) （YC2016-S093）
