铁道科学与工程学报2018，Vol.15Issue(7)：1832-1838,7.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.2018.07.027
改进的车轮踏面磨损量最优非负变权组合预测模型
An improved optimal non-negative variable weight combination model for prediction of wheel tread wear
摘要
Abstract
In order to obtain the wheel tread wear loss along with the changes of running distances,an optimal non-negative variable weight combination forecasting model was proposed based on grey correlation degree of maximum. The single forecasting models included grey discrete GM (1,1) model, exponential smoothing model and linear regression model. The calculation results were compared with three single models and the variable weight combination model based on the error square of minimum. The results show that the partial and global forecasting accuracy of variation weight combination model are distinctly higher than each single model. Moreover, the new model can effectively control the error defect of the variation weight combination model based on the error square of minimum, which has higher forecasting accuracy and stability.关键词
车轮踏面/磨损量/组合预测/最优非负变权/灰色关联度Key words
wheel tread/wear loss/combination forecasting/optimal non-negative variable weight/grey correlation degree分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
蔡煊,王长林..改进的车轮踏面磨损量最优非负变权组合预测模型[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2018,15(7):1832-1838,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60776832) （60776832）
