电网技术2017，Vol.41Issue(12)：3917-3925,9.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.0671
考虑空间容量饱和的分布式光伏时空分布预测
Temporal and Spatial Forecasting of Distributed PV Considering Spatial Capacity Saturation
符杨 1田灿 1李振坤 1季亮 1金山红 2张静炜2
作者信息
- 1. 上海电力学院 电气工程学院,上海市 杨浦区 200090
- 2. 国网浙江省电力公司 嘉兴供电公司,浙江省 嘉兴市 314000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
With large number of distributed PV integrated into power grid, as a key link of distribution network planning, capacity forecasting of distributed PV is an important basis for comprehensive load calculation for substation and network planning. In this paper, forecasting evaluation of distributed PV capacity in area planning is studied in-depth, and a temporal and spatial forecasting method of distributed PV generation is proposed for active distribution network planning. A model for forecasting temporal and spatial distribution of distributed PV installed capacity in distribution network is established. By using method of vacant area inference and temporal order of area development, spatial distribution of distributed PV capacity in planning years is obtained. Finally, temporal and spatial forecasting of distributed PV capacity in a new urban planning area in East China is simulated. Distribution of distributed PV capacity of this new planning area in planning and saturation years is obtained, thus validity and practicability of this method are verified.关键词
主动配电网规划/分布式光伏/时空预测/容量饱和/空区推论/时序发展Key words
active distribution network planning/distributed PV generation/temporal and spatial prediction/spatial capacity saturation/vacant area inference/temporal order of area development分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
符杨,田灿,李振坤,季亮,金山红,张静炜..考虑空间容量饱和的分布式光伏时空分布预测[J].电网技术,2017,41(12):3917-3925,9.
