广东电力2018，Vol.31Issue(6)：84-90,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2018.006.013
考虑光伏不确定性的配电网负荷特性概率评估
Evaluation on Load Characteristic Probability of Power Distribution Network Considering Photovoltaic Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately evaluate effect degree of photovoltaic (PV)accessing into the power distribution network on load characteristic,this paper analyzes uncertainty and time-sequence of PV output and establishes a time-sequence model for PV output based on clearance model. According to randomness of PV output and load,it proposes three kinds of probabilis-tic load characteristic indicators including confidence daily load rate,confidence daily difference between peak and valley and confidence daily peak load. On the basis of probabilistic indicators and combining Monte Carlo simulation method,it forms an evaluation method for load characteristic probability of the power distribution network considering PV uncertainty, then it uses this method to analyze effect degree of PV accessing into the network on load of industrial manufacture,hotel business,agricultural process and resident life under different permeability and weather situations. According to historical data of PV output of Guangdong region,it makes simulation analysis,and corresponding results indicate the proposed proba-bilistic load characteristic indicators can accurately reflect effect of PV accessing on load characteristic and provide basis for power grid planning and operation.关键词
负荷特性/概率性指标/净空模型/光伏出力时序模型/蒙特卡洛模拟法Key words
load characteristic/probabilistic index/clearance model/time-sequence model of photovoltaic output/Monte Carlo simulation method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黄伟,陈雪,林怀德,羿应棋,容慧娴,黄春艳..考虑光伏不确定性的配电网负荷特性概率评估[J].广东电力,2018,31(6):84-90,7.基金项目
广东电网有限责任公司科技项目(036000QQ00160005) （036000QQ00160005）
