干旱地区农业研究2018，Vol.36Issue(3)：270-278,9.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.03.40
基于耕地—粮食—人口系统的休耕区域耕地压力时空演变及预测——以河北省为例
Cultivated area-food-population system in land fallow area and analysis of spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of cultivated land index——A Case Study of Hebei Province
摘要
Abstract
This study analyzed cultivated land,food and population systems with time-varying characteristics based on statistics like cultivated land area,grain yield and population of Hebei Province during the last 65 years as well as cultivated land pressure index using the for mula of the smallest cultivated land area.The paper calculated,analyzed and forecasted the spatial and temporal characteristics of the cultivated land pressure index in Hebei Prov-ince by GM(1,1)model.The results showed that:(1)There are some changes in Hebei Province from 1949 to 2014: The cultivated land decreased from 726.579×104hm2to 653.774×104hm2,the cultivated land per capita de-creased from 0.24 hm2to 0.09 hm2,the grain yield increased from 469.51×104t to 3 360.2×104t,grain yield per capita increased from 152.14 kg to 455.07 kg,and the total population increased from 3 086.06×104to 7 384×104;(2)All the cultivated land pressure indexes declined when the annual grain demand per capita was 380,400,420 kg,and continued below 1,respectively after 2005,2008 and 2010.All the cultivated land pressure indexes of 11 cities in Hebei Province declined during the 65 years and only indexed 4 cities over 1 in 2010.The global Moran's I of cultivated land pressure index was from weak negative correlation to weak positive correlation and the spatial ag-glomeration became stronger;(3)The cultivated land pressure index of Hebei Province continued to decline with the index below 1 over the next 11 year,and suggestions aiming at the less cultivated land pressure and food securi-ty issues in Hebei Province were put forward.关键词
耕地-粮食-人口系统/耕地压力/粮食安全/休耕/时空特征/河北省Key words
area-food-population system/pressure on cultivated land/food security/land follow/spatio-tem-poral characteristics/Hebei Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨人豪,杨庆媛,陈伊多,曾黎..基于耕地—粮食—人口系统的休耕区域耕地压力时空演变及预测——以河北省为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(3):270-278,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"实行耕地轮作休耕制度研究"项目(15ZDC032) （15ZDC032）
