管理工程学报2018，Vol.32Issue(3)：37-42,6.DOI:10.13587/j.cnki.jieem.2018.03.005
中国对外投资模仿性、集聚性与区域性投资的过度:基于信息扩散视角的演化分析
Imitation and agglomeration of Chinese foreign investment and excessiveness of the regional investment: The evolution analysis based on the perspective of information diffusion
摘要
Abstract
China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increased dramatically in recent years. OFDI accounted for $102.9 billion in the year of 2014, up 14.1% from a year earlier, and involved more than 156 countries and regions around the world. In general, China’s OFDI has achieved regional diversity. However, it has a high market concentration ratio in developed countries such as U.S., and Australia. There are more than 60% of projects that have been invested in developed countries, most of which are large scale projects. Furthermore, China’s OFDI has the higher year-on-year growth in developed countries in 2014, up 23.9% in U.S. and 1.7 times in EU. However, in reality the developed countries set many barriers to China’s OFDI. It makes Chinese enterprises more difficult to invest in these area, even to suffer huge losses. Then, why are they keen to investing in developed counties? There are lots of literatures considering that the major driving factors are incentive normative market order, rich resources, excellent investment environment, advanced technology, and so on. However, it is not enough to explain the formation of the unequal relationship between investment scale and the rate of investment yield from China’s OFDI in developed counties. China’s OFDI process is caused by mass information diffusion and choice. On one hand, development policy and other relevant information in the developed countries quickly spread through efficient communication technologies, which form the objective basis for investment decision. On the other hand, the early practices provide reference for the later investors and influence their investment decisions. In the early 90s, some large enterprises of China which entered into the international market early had been inclined to invest in developed countries. As a typical successful case, Haier group caused a sensation of domestic and foreign media. Such behavior of "Influencer" or "Opinion Leader" improves the diffusion speed of information and media attention. From the present studies, herd behavior in stock market and Lotka-Volterra model which describes dynamic competitive relationship between populations in ecology is suitable for explaining the innovation of market selection innovation, the evolution process of imitating, and the diffusion and competition between different types of information. Therefore, this paper uses ecological methods and adopts the perspective of information diffusion. We divide information into subjective and objective information which the investors will face during OFDI. And we analyze the behavior on investment location selection of different information adopters. In the first part, according to the analysis of the objective information diffusion, investment decision, subjective information diffusion, investment imitating, investment regional agglomeration and competition, we analyze the evolution mechanisms of investment regional selection. In the second part, according to innovation and imitation behavior of investors, we build foreign investment area selection model based on Lotka-Volterra, and analyze the dynamic evolution of OFDI decisions, as well as the practical significance of the model in China’s OFDI. In the third part, we verify key factors that can influence information diffusion through simulation. According to the analysis of the influence of investment imitation on the regional distribution structure and aggregate investment under the subjective information, we dissect the formation and evolution path of China's OFDI decision-making on areas of investment and problems. At last, we draw a conclusion and propound countermeasures of China’s OFDI on area selection. The findings of this paper provide theoretical and practical values to optimize China’s OFDI strategy.关键词
中国对外投资/信息扩散/区域模仿/投资集聚/Lotka-Volterra模型Key words
China’s OFDI/Information diffusion/Regional imitation/Investment agglomeration/Lotka-Volterra model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
薛琰如,张海亮,邹平..中国对外投资模仿性、集聚性与区域性投资的过度:基于信息扩散视角的演化分析[J].管理工程学报,2018,32(3):37-42,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71462021) （71462021）
云南省应用基础研究计划资助项目(2014FB135) （2014FB135）
