管理工程学报2018，Vol.32Issue(3)：226-233,8.DOI:10.13587/j.cnki.jieem.2018.03.026
融合了BN分析的SITRM方法及其在产业关键技术创新模式选择上的应用研究
Combination of bayesian network for SITRM approach and its application in industrial critical technology innovation model selection
摘要
Abstract
Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping (STRM) can solve the issue that single linear prediction technology roadmapping is difficult to be implemented in a dynamic and unstable environment due to its lack of robustness. Currently, STRM is still limited to theoretical research, and it has the following limitations. First, STRM targets at enterprise-level technology roadmapping. Few analyses and researches are given to scenario-based Industrial Technology Roadmapping (SITRM). Second, there is no analysis about industrial technology innovation model. Third, the effects and update of STRM are rarely discussed. In order to find a new method for planning industrial technology innovation, this paper presents Bayesian Network (BN) quantitative analysis in SITRM on the basis of incorporating the idea of STRM into industrial technology roadmapping. According to the research of SITRM, BN analysis has three advantages. First, BN can learn layers or the interrelation in SITRM. In addition, BN can express and conduct analysis of these levels and interrelations by using the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Second, the Conditional Probability Table (CPT) can demonstrate the system’s multiple status and the uncertainty of the logical relation between multiple status. Third, BN can also display the relation between industrial scenarios and industrial critical technologies even when the data is incomplete. This paper investigates the following aspects. First, this paper constructs a topology model of SITRM and displays the direct or indirect relation between random variables in ITRM (industrial environments, industrial targets and industrial critical technologies) through the DAG. It solves the issue that the relation between cross-level random variables cannot be displayed in ITRM design process. It also uses the CPT to demonstrate multiple status and the uncertainty of the logical relation between multiple statuses in SITRM in order to enhance the robustness of SITRM design. Second, based on probability deduction methods of BN, this paper performs a quantitative analysis of the planning of industrial technology innovation model and innovation path. The paper also provides specific analysis process and calculation model. Third, this paper presents the probability algorithm of the occurrence of relevant nodes based on posterior probability. It also discusses how to reconstruct and update SITRM based on this algorithm. Fourth, this paper verifies the proposed methods based on the case study of the Light Emitting Diode (LED) industry in Guangdong. However, this paper also leaves some issues to be further discussed. Those issues include the time dimension of ITRM, the timeliness of industrial critical technologies, and providing quantitative information for ITRM update.关键词
产业技术路线图/基于情景的技术路线图/贝叶斯网络/产业技术创新模式/创新路径Key words
Industrial technology roadmapping/Scenario-based technology roadmapping/Bayesian network/Industrial technological innovation model/Iinnovation path分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李剑敏,李从东,汤勇力,胡欣悦,Claudio Petti..融合了BN分析的SITRM方法及其在产业关键技术创新模式选择上的应用研究[J].管理工程学报,2018,32(3):226-233,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401063) （71401063）
欧盟FP7资助项目(PIRSES-GA-2013-610350) （PIRSES-GA-2013-610350）
