气象与环境学报2018，Vol.34Issue(3)：48-57,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.03.006
基于3种能见度方案山东地区雾天气预报试验研究
Fog weather forecast experiments over Shandong province based on three visibility schemes
摘要
Abstract
Based on Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)-Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)model system,three op-erational visibility schemes,including Stoelinga and Warner(SW)scheme,RUC scheme and Forecast Systems La-boratory(FSL)scheme,were used to make a forecast experiment for 25 fog events from October of 2015 to March of 2016 in Shandong province.The experiment included quantitative forecast of visibility and diagnostic forecast on weather fog occurs.The forecasting result is evaluated using routine meteorological observations.The causes of bad forecast on fog weather by different schemes were analyzed and then the RUC scheme was im-proved.The results indicated that the mean absolute error of visibility computed by the SW scheme ranges between 9 km and 12 km,while that computed by RUC scheme and FSL scheme varies within 2-4 km.For most of the fog events over Shandong province in the forecast experiment,the hit rate is larger than the false alarm rate based on the SW scheme and the FSL scheme,which means that the two schemes have a certain capability to forecast fog e-vents.However,the hit rate and false alarm rate of fog prediction by the RUC scheme are both zero,indicating that this scheme has no ability to forecast fog.Combining the evaluating results of visibility and fog,the FSL scheme is more suitable to produce the operational product of fog in the WRF-RUC model.The major causes of bad predic-tive results include that the simulated visibility is very sensitive to the error of relative humidity,the influence of air pollutant on visibility is not considered,and lack of appropriate localized revision impact on the forecast effect of visibility scheme on fog.After improving the RUC scheme,the mean absolute error of the visibility deceases and the forecasting performance of fog is improved.关键词
雾/能见度/WRF-RUC模式/预报试验Key words
Fog/Visibility/WRF-RUC model/Forecast experiment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
夏凡,李昌义..基于3种能见度方案山东地区雾天气预报试验研究[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(3):48-57,10.基金项目
山东省气象局青年基金(2015SDQN01、2017SDQN08)、山东省气象科学研究所数值天气预报应用技术开放研究基金(SDQXKF2015M04)和山东省气象局重点课题(2014sdqxz01)共同资助. （2015SDQN01、2017SDQN08）
