水利水电科技进展2018，Vol.38Issue(4)：57-63,7.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2018.04.010
土石坝风险实时评估与综合预警模型
A real-time risk assessment and synthetical early warning model of earth and rockfill dams
摘要
Abstract
To discuss the real-time risk assessment methods for earth and rockfill dams,the point estimation method is adopted for the real-time dam-break probability analysis.The dam-break losses were analyzed based on BREACH and HEC-RAS.According to previous research,new risk evaluation criteria and corresponding risk early warning standards are proposed.A new synthetical early warning model is established combined with the current risk early warning standards for emergency events.The verification example shows that the real-time analysis method of earth and rockfill dam break probability based on point estimation method can meet the requirements of both computational accuracy and efficiency.The synthetical early warning model can effectively improve the early warning capability while reduce the loss caused by excessive early warning to a certain extent.It can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the risk management of earth and rockfill dams.关键词
土石坝/风险评估/可靠度理论/点估计法/预警模型/溃坝概率Key words
earth and rockfill dam/risk assessment/reliability theory/point estimation method/early warning model/dam break probability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
蔡荨,王昭升,朱思宇,丁嘉林..土石坝风险实时评估与综合预警模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(4):57-63,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401603) （2016YFC0401603）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501033) （201501033）
