生态学报2018，Vol.38Issue(11)：3741-3755,15.DOI:10.5846/stxb201708271546
基于土地利用变化情景的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估——以深圳市茅洲河流域为例
Storm flood disaster risk assessment in urban area based on the simulation of land use scenarios: A case of Maozhou Watershed in Shenzhen City
摘要
Abstract
Recently,the frequent storm flood has become the main hazard in the coastal cities,which treats to the regional sustainable development.Land use change has transformed the original landscape structure and hydrological processes,and also becomes the significant factor to the increase of urban storm flood disaster risk.It is significant to discuss on the relationship between the land use change and the storm flood hazard risk.Based on the CLUE-S model,the SCS model and the equal volume submerged algorithm,this article took the Maozhou Watershed as the study area and quantitatively evaluated the storm flood disaster risk in the twelve interactional scenarios of the storm hazard and the hazard affected land use.Results showed that the urban storm flood hazard risk increased remarkably with the increased storm magnitude on a certain pattern of land use.While at the same level of the storm hazard,the areas of medium and high risk patches showed an obvious increasing trend with the increased construction land.The area increasing rates of high or medium level risk patches and the construction land were highly-related with the form of synergy.Take the recurrence interval of 50years as an example,the area of high risk patches grew from 254.07hm2 to 276.48hm2 and 286.2hm2 when the construction land area ncreased from the base scenario to short-term and long-term scenario,respectively.Therefore,even though the significant factor to the storm flood disaster risk is the storm magnitude,the influence of land use change characterized by the increasing of construction land on the storm flood disaster risk cannot be ignored.关键词
土地利用变化情景/暴雨洪涝灾害风险/等体积淹没算法/深圳市茅洲河流域Key words
land use change scenarios/storm flood disaster risk/equal volume submerged algorithm/Maozhou Watershed in Shenzhen City引用本文复制引用
彭建,魏海,武文欢,刘焱序,王仰麟..基于土地利用变化情景的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估——以深圳市茅洲河流域为例[J].生态学报,2018,38(11):3741-3755,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330747) （41330747）
