西南交通大学学报2018，Vol.53Issue(4)：748-755,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2018.04.012
山体滑坡灾害险情的水上交通管制模式
Control Mode of Waterway Traffic under Dangerous Mountain Landslide Conditions
摘要
Abstract
The control mode of waterway traffic under dangerous mountain landslide conditions was studied to safeguard ship navigation and enhance the transportation efficiency of water channels. Large-scale surge generated by paroxysmal mountain landslides was considered based on a considerable amount of case data,conclusions from physical model experiments,conclusions from consulting the literature,and data from practical investigation. The occurrence probability of mountain landslides was estimated according to the stage of landslides deformation and effects of external environmental forces. The maritime risk caused by mountain landslides was assessed according to the stage of landslides deformation,the scale of the surge generated by mountain landslides, and effects of external environmental forces and restricted environmental conditions on ships. The control mode of waterway traffic,which included forms of traffic control and prohibited levels of ship traffic,was designed based on evolving traits of maritime risk. The form of traffic control should depend on the estimated occurrence probability of mountain landslide,and the prohibited level of ship traffic should depend on maritime risk caused by the mountain landslide. A case study shows that,when the occurrence probability of a mountain landslide is 0. 6 and the maritime risk of a mountain landslide is 1. 80,the alert mode of traffic control must be adopted. When the occurrence probability is 0. 6 and the maritime risk is 2. 25,the mode of traffic control with a definite ship flow form must be adopted. When the occurrence probability is 0. 72 and the maritime risk is 2. 16,the mode of traffic control with definite ship objects and definite time must be adopted;when the occurrence probability is 0. 72 and the maritime risk is 2. 70,the prohibited mode of traffic control is necessary.关键词
滑坡涌浪/发生概率/风险评估/交通管制模式Key words
landslide surge/occurrence probability/risk assessment/traffic control mode分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
程志友,王平义,杨成渝,王仕贤,郑捷,李亚玲..山体滑坡灾害险情的水上交通管制模式[J].西南交通大学学报,2018,53(4):748-755,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479015) （51479015）
中国博士后基金资助项目(2016M592889XB) （2016M592889XB）
重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究资助项目(KJ1500519) （KJ1500519）
重庆交通大学国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心暨水利水运工程教育部重点实验室开放基金资助项目(SLK2016B06) 重庆市教委科学技术项目(kj1400318)和内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室基金(NHHY2015001)资助. （SLK2016B06）
