北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.54Issue(2)：208-216,9.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2018.02.011
全球陆地暴雨时空格局变化的自然和人文影响因素研究(1981-2010年)
Climatical and anthropogenic factors in changes in spatiotemporal patterns of global heavy rainfall (1981-2010)
摘要
Abstract
Frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events under the background of global climate change has caused tremendous harms to economic and social development, life security, and ecosystem,with profound impacts on sustainable development in disaster area. Heavy rain has become a key factor in global &. regional disasters,and has become a major concern in academic circles and in society. Stepwise regression analysis identified 2 out of 33 climate indices-El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),Arctic Oscillation (AO), and 2 out of 11 socio-economic factors-black carbon aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and carbon dioxide (C02), all closely related to urbanization, as important factors for increased heavy rainfall globally. Granger causality test shows that urbanization factors and climate indices are both strong causes for increased heavy rainfall in global land,climate indices play more important roles in heavy rainfall than anthropogenic factors. Urbanization factors could explain 20.0％, and 19.9％ of the variance in HRA and HRD respectively, while natural factors could explain 32.2％ and 31.4％ respectively. Distributions of HRA and HRD demonstrate spatially a clear expanding pattern, which show statistically significant correlation with spatial distribution of convective available potential energy. These data strongly suggest that significant increase in heavy rainfall across large area in global land during the past 30 years may have been mainly a consequence of large scale climate changes and rapid urbanization. All data suggest that large scale climate index variation is the main cause of annual and decadal increases in heavy rainfall. Our data also point out the importance of better understanding the role of human activities in regional climate change,and the importance of integration them into climate models.关键词
暴雨/人类活动/自然因子/方差解释率/归因分析/全球尺度Key words
heavy rainfall/human activities/natural factors/variance explained rate/attribution analysis/global scale分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孔锋,史培军,吕丽莉,方建,张黎黎,王卓妮..全球陆地暴雨时空格局变化的自然和人文影响因素研究(1981-2010年)[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,54(2):208-216,9.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201843,CCSF201844) （CCSF201843,CCSF201844）
中国清洁发展机制基金资助项目(2014087) （2014087）
中亚大气科学研究基金资助项目(CAAS201804) （CAAS201804）
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (41775078,41701103) （41775078,41701103）
中国气象局气象软科学自主资助项目(2018[23]) （2018[23]）
