电网技术2018，Vol.42Issue(5)：1467-1474,8.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.2589
基于奇异谱分析-模糊信息粒化和极限学习机的风速多步区间预测
Wind Speed Multi-Step Interval Prediction Based on Singular Spectrum AnalysisFuzzy Information Granulation and Extreme Learning Machine
摘要
Abstract
Unlike wind speed prediction, wind speed interval prediction can describe randomness of wind speed. A novel model for wind speed interval prediction was proposed by combination of singular spectrum analysis-fuzzy information granulation (SSA-FIG) and extreme learning machine (ELM). SSA was used to extract trend, oscillating and noise components of original data, and reconstruct all the components. Fuzzy information granulation of the reconstructed noise components was performed. The minimum, average and maximum values of each window is extracted according to need, and ELM algorithm is adopted to build forecasting model for each component. Improved cuckoo search algorithm (ICS) is introduced to optimize model parameters for further improving prediction accuracy and reducing interval range. The overall interval prediction with a certain confidence level is obtained by superimposing the forecasted results of three components. Results for a practical case show that, the proposed method can get higher forecasting accuracy, more reliable multi-step interval forecast and higher efficiency, and is able to track wind speed variation.关键词
多步区间预测/风速点预测/奇异谱分析-模糊信息粒化/极限学习机/改进布谷鸟算法Key words
multi-step interval prediction/wind speed prediction/singular spectrum analysis - fuzzy information granulation (SSA-FIG)/extreme learning machine/improved cuckoo search algorithm分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
殷豪,曾云,孟安波,杨跞..基于奇异谱分析-模糊信息粒化和极限学习机的风速多步区间预测[J].电网技术,2018,42(5):1467-1474,8.基金项目
广东省科技计划项目(2016A010104016).Project Supported by Guangdong Province Science and Technology Project (2016A010104016). （2016A010104016）
