灌溉排水学报2018，Vol.37Issue(6)：109-116,8.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0447
淮北平原降水量和参考作物蒸散量时空演变规律研究
Spatiotemporal Variation of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This paper is to calculate the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation and evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain over the past six decades.[Method]The spatiotemporal change in the reference crop evapotranspiration was calculated based on the meteorological data measured from five weather stations in the region from 1955 to 2015, using ArcGIS, the M-K test and the R/S analysis method, the Kendall rank correlation and the M-K mutation test method, as well as the Yamamoto method and the sliding t-test method.[Result]From 1955 to 2015, the precipitation in this region increased steadily, accompanied by a declined reference evapotranspiration. The wettest years were 1966, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2013, and the reference evapotranspiration endured dramatic changes in 1998 and 2004 although the climate in these two years was comparable with in other years. Analysis of all data from 1955 to 2015 revealed that the probability of Bengbu and Fuyang being the wettest region was 50％, while Dangshan becoming the driest area was 83％. For evapotranspiration, the probability it peaked in Bozhou was 33％ and troughed in Bengbu was 67％. These results suggested that irrigation schedule in the Huaibei Plain should be adjusted in that more irrigations should be considered for Bozhou and Dangshan and less for Bengbu and Fuyang.[Conclusion]There were no dramatic change in precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1955 to 2015, although evapotranspiration fluctuated noticeably. It is predicted that the precipitation in this region will continue to increase and the evapotranspiration will decrease in the coming years, rendering the region vulnerable to waterlogging or even flooding. Therefore, improving drainage should be the priority for this region to maintain its agricultural production.关键词
淮北平原/降水量/参考作物蒸散量/数理统计法/ArcGISKey words
Huaibei Plain/precipitation/reference crop evapotranspiration/mathematical statistics/ArcGIS分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈柏丽,朱永华,王春艳,吕海深..淮北平原降水量和参考作物蒸散量时空演变规律研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(6):109-116,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0400909,2016YFA0601504) （2016YFC0400909,2016YFA0601504）
国家自然科学基金项目(41571015,41371049) （41571015,41371049）
