气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(3)：221-227,7.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.230
基于CMIP5耦合气候模式的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间研究
CMIP5-based threshold-crossing times of 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above pre-industrial levels
摘要
Abstract
Based on the outputs of CMIP5 models, 1. 5℃ and 2℃ global warming threshold-crossing time above pre-industrial levels are evaluated under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The results of multi-model ensemble showed that relative to the pre-industrial levels, the global warming would exceed 1. 5℃ threshold in 2029, 2028 and 2025 in the RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios, respectively. Under RCP2. 6 scenario, the global warming would be kept below 2℃ until the end of the 21st century while the 2℃ global warming would occur around 2048 and 2040 in the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios. The time required from 1. 5℃ to 2℃ global warming threshold is cut down in RCP8. 5 compared with RCP4. 5. On the regional scales, the threshold-crossing times over the land are earlier than those over the ocean and show little difference among scenarios whereas the time can be advanced in stronger emission for the ocean. Regarding global warming, the times crossing 1. 5℃and 2℃ warming threshold in China are both earlier, especially for Northeast China and Northwest China.关键词
CMIP5耦合气候模式/1.5℃升温/2℃升温/出现时间/区域分异Key words
CIMP5/1.5℃ warming/2℃ warming/Threshold-crossing time/Geographical variations引用本文复制引用
周梦子,周广胜,吕晓敏,周莉,汲玉河..基于CMIP5耦合气候模式的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):221-227,7.基金项目
中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项基金 (2016Y007) （2016Y007）
国家自然科学基金重点项目 (41330531) （41330531）
中国气象局气候变化专项 (CCSF201711) （CCSF201711）
