气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(3)：228-236,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.202
中国未来极端气温变化的概率预估及其不确定性
Probability projection and uncertainties of the temperature extreme indices change over China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature from 23 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4. 5 scenario, five temperature extreme indices including average maximum temperature (TXAV), average minimum temperature (TNAV), heat wave duration index (HWDI), frost days (FD) and warm nights (TNF90) were calculated, and the probability projection of extreme temperature indices were analyzed after evaluating the performance of models in simulating the extreme indices. The results show that there has a high probability (more than 66％chance) of increasing by 2. 0℃for TNAV and TXAV during mid of the 21st century. The increasing maximum regions are located over south of Tibetan Plateau region. TNF90 increases by 15％across the whole region, with the largest values over 20％in southwestern China and south coastal region. FD is projected to decrease with the largest negative magnitude over 20 d regions over the Tibetan Plateau. HWDI increase by 10 d occurs across the whole China region, with maximum value by 30 d located over southern Tibetan Plateau. The uncertainties results show that temperature indices change have large reliabilities except HWDI. For the end of the 21st century, the increase magnitude of indices is more remarkable than the former period, and both TNAV and TXAV have very high probabilities (larger than 90％) by2. 0℃. Increasing magnitudes of TNF90 over southwestern China and south coastal regions are larger than 25％while TNF90 in most regions decreases by 15％. FD decreases by 20 d in most regions and by 40 d around the Tibetan Plateau. HWDI increases by 20 d throughout the whole region, maxima increase region is located over southeastern of TP. The credibility is the same as that during the mid-21st century except FD.关键词
CMIP5/极端气温/概率预估/不确定性Key words
CMIP5/Extreme temperature/Probability projection/Uncertainties引用本文复制引用
江晓菲,李伟,游庆龙..中国未来极端气温变化的概率预估及其不确定性[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):228-236,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划 (2017YFA0603804) （2017YFA0603804）
国家自然科学基金重点项目 (41230528) （41230528）
江苏省高等学校大学生创新创业训练计划 (201613982008Y) （201613982008Y）
