气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(3)：266-274,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.235
基于CMIP5模式安徽省植被净初级生产力预估
Projection of vegetation net primary productivity based on CMIP5 models in Anhui province
摘要
Abstract
In this paper the impacts of climate change on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) were estimated in the near term (2018-2030), mid-term (2031-2050), and long term (2051-2099) of the 21st century using a NPP model driven by 5 general circulation models under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results indicated that the simulation effect of multi-model ensemble is better than that of single model, and the model of MIROC-ESM-CHEM has better simulation ability for precipitation through the assessment of climate patterns. The climate of Anhui province will continue to warm in the 21st century, with the northern warming rate will be higher than the south, especially in the RCP8. 5 scenario. Precipitation will be increasing, with the southern increasing more than the northern. As the climate tends to be warm and humid, vegetation NPP will increase in the 21st century, and the trend of NPP increase will be not obvious in the near term, but will be significant in the mid-term and long period as compared with baseline, and vegetation NPP could be generally higher in the south region than in the north region. From the perspective of climate change response, there is a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation and mean temperature in Anhui province, and the response to precipitation is more significant.关键词
CMIP5模式/植被净初级生产力/气候变化/安徽省Key words
CMIP5 models/Vegetation net primary productivity/Climate change/Anhui province引用本文复制引用
王胜,许红梅,王德燕,宋阿伟,段春锋,何冬燕..基于CMIP5模式安徽省植被净初级生产力预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):266-274,9.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项 (CCSF201832) （CCSF201832）
国家重点研发计划 (2016YFE0102400) （2016YFE0102400）
