统计与决策2018，Vol.34Issue(16)：35-39,5.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2018.16.009
基于贝叶斯定理的能源供应网络脆弱性研究
Research on Vulnerability of Energy Supply Network Based on Bayes Theorem
摘要
Abstract
This paper constructs the energy supply chain vulnerability index system and the evaluation model of energy supply chain vulnerability measurement method based on Bayesian network. And then the paper takes the primary energy input and output data of 30 provinces in China as an example to test the proposed model. The results show that from the perspective of energy constraint, the analysis of China's energy supply chain vulnerability is basically consistent with the theory of"Hu Huanyong Line". When the energy supply chain has risks, the energy transfer is the supply chain vulnerability point of the provinces to the east of the"Hu Huanyong Line"; energy production is the supply chain vulnerability point of the provinces to the west of the"Hu Huanyong Line". Among them, the coal transfer is the supply chain vulnerability point of the provinces to the east of the"Hu Huanyong Line"; coal production is the supply chain vulnerability point of the provinces to the west of the"Hu Huanyong Line", all of which accords with the energy allocation pattern divided by the"Hu Huanyong Line", and conforms to the characteristics of China's resource endowment and the energy consumption structure dominated by coal.关键词
贝叶斯定理/能源供应链/供应链脆弱性/测度模型Key words
Bayesian theorem/energy supply chain/supply chain vulnerability/measure model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
杨洋,刘旭,刘艺林,浮豪豪..基于贝叶斯定理的能源供应网络脆弱性研究[J].统计与决策,2018,34(16):35-39,5.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目 (2014QG01) （2014QG01）
北京市社会科学基金青年项目 (15JGC185) （15JGC185）
中国矿业大学 (北京) 越崎青年学者资助项目 （北京）
大学生科研选题训练资助项目 (K201605036) （K201605036）
