大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2018，Vol.11Issue(6)：499-508,10.
基于EOF分解的季节预测误差订正方法的改进及其应用检验
Improved EOF-based bias correction method for seasonal forecasts and its application in IAP AGCM4.1
摘要
Abstract
An effective improvement on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based bias correction method for seasonal forecasts is proposed in this paper,by introducing a stepwise regression method into the process of EOF time series correction.Using 30-year (1981-2010) hindcast results from IAP AGCM4.1 (the latest version of this model),the improved method is validated for the prediction of summer (June-July-August) rainfall anomalies in Southeast China.The results in terms of the pattern correction coefficient (PCC) of rainfall anomalies shows that the 30-year-averaged prediction skill improves from 0.01 to 0.06 with the original correction method,and to 0.29 using the improved method.The applicability in real-time prediction is also investigated,using 2016 summer rainfall prediction as a test case.With a PCC of 0.59,the authors find that the new correction method significantly improves the prediction skill;the PCC using the direct prediction of the model is-0.04,and using the old bias correction method it is 0.37.关键词
误差订正/季节预测/预报技巧/IAP AGCM4.1大气环流模式Key words
Bias correction/seasonal forecast/prediction skill/IAP AGCM4.1引用本文复制引用
YU Yue,LIN Zhao-Hui,QIN Zheng-Kun..基于EOF分解的季节预测误差订正方法的改进及其应用检验[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2018,11(6):499-508,10.基金项目
This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number 2016YFC0402702],the Key Project of the Meteorological Public Welfare Research Program [grant number GYHY201406021],and the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41575095 and 41661144032]. （）
