铁道标准设计2019，Vol.63Issue(1)：29-34,6.DOI:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.201802260004
重载铁路轨道高低不平顺预测研究
Research on the Prediction of Track Vertical Profile Irregularity of Heavy Haul Railway
摘要
Abstract
Track irregularity seriously threatens the traffic safety and equipment service life of railway.The research on the variation characteristics and degradation law of track vertical profile irregularity plays an important guiding role in the track maintenance management of heavy haul railway. Based on grey interval prediction modeling theory, this paper conducts researches on the variation characteristics and degradation law of the track vertical profile irregularity of heavy haul railway, and predicts the future development of track vertical profile irregularity. In order to verifies the effectiveness of the prediction models, historical track vertical profile irregularity data of 17 months are obtained from 10 segments of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway with most frequent irregularity, and the results show that the models are effective in fitting and predict of the track vertical profile irregularity, and are of great significance to the track maintenance management of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway.关键词
重载铁路/神朔铁路/轨道高低不平顺/灰色区间预测模型/预测Key words
Heavy haul railway/Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway/Track vertical profile irregularity/Grey interval prediction model/Prediction分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
包文艳,王福田,李仕毅,张宁..重载铁路轨道高低不平顺预测研究[J].铁道标准设计,2019,63(1):29-34,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51578057) （51578057）
轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室(北京交通大学)自主研究课题(RCS2016ZT007) （北京交通大学）
