西安理工大学学报2018，Vol.34Issue(4)：401-406,6.DOI:10.19322/j.cnki.issn.1006-4710.2018.04.004
基于小量级降雨预报的水库汛限水位动态控制风险分析
Risk analysis of the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited level based on small scale rainfall forecast
摘要
Abstract
The risk control model for the dynamic control of flood limited level based on rainfall forecast is established to quantitatively evaluate the risks brought by dynamic control by which to reservoir flood control management.The paper analyzes the precision of"no rain"or"light rain"forecast, and establishes the risk model for the dynamic control of flood limited level under the conditions of considering the missing report of"no rain"or"light rain", checking the frequency of flood, flood control level range, flood regulation mode and so on, with the model solved by using the approximate frequency distribution curve instead of the probability distribution function.Taking the Shimen Reservoir in Hanzhong City as an example, this paper analyzes the storing and discharging capacity of Shimen reservoir, suggesting that according to the dispatching mode watershed 24hours forecast"no rain"can raise the flood limited water level to 617.5m, that forecast"light rain"can be raised to 617.0m, that"no rain"or"light rain"omission when using dynamic control, and that the risk of the maximum flood level exceeding the reservoir design flood level is acceptable.The dynamic control of flood limited level can effectively improve the utilization rate of rainwater resources, establishing a dispatching risk analysis model based on rainfall probability can quantitatively estimate the possible risks and provide reference for decision makers.关键词
降雨预报/汛限水位/动态控制/风险Key words
rainfall forecast/flood limited level/dynamic control/risk分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
黄灵芝,李守义,司政..基于小量级降雨预报的水库汛限水位动态控制风险分析[J].西安理工大学学报,2018,34(4):401-406,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51609200,51879217) （51609200,51879217）
陕西省水利厅科技计划资助项目(2014slkj-16) （2014slkj-16）
