安徽农业大学学报2018，Vol.45Issue(6)：1092-1101,10.DOI:10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20190102.007
基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的福州市土地利用演变与模拟
Land-use change and simulation in Fuzhou based on Logistic-CA-Markov model
摘要
Abstract
Based on remote sensing images of 1995, 2005 and 2015 in Fuzhou city, topography data, and socioeconomic statistics data, the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to explain the change and driving factors of land-use in this area, predict and simulate the future land-use structure of Fuzhou city in the future. The results showed that: (1) Except for the continuous increase of construction land in 1995-2015, the other four kinds of land-use showed a decreasing trend, and the increase of construction land was mainly derived from forestland and farmland. (2) In the Logistic regression analysis, the change of forest land was mainly influenced by elevation. The changes of farmland and water were mainly influenced by the distance. The construction land and the unused land were mainly influenced by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The Logistic-CA-Markov model was validated to high prediction accuracy. In conclusion, in 2025, it is estimated that land for construction and water bodies will increase, while forest land, agricultural land and unused land will decrease. From 1995 to 2025, construction land will increase at the fastest rate, while unused land will decrease at the fastest rate.关键词
土地利用变化/驱动力因子/Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型/模拟预测/福州市Key words
land-use change/driving force factor/Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model/simulation prediction/Fuzhou city分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈铸,傅伟聪,黄雅冰,阙晨曦,郑祈全,董建文..基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的福州市土地利用演变与模拟[J].安徽农业大学学报,2018,45(6):1092-1101,10.基金项目
国家林业公益性行业科研专项"美丽城镇森林景观的构建技术研究与示范"(201404301)资助 （201404301）
