电器与能效管理技术Issue(24)：27-31,5.DOI:10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2018.24.005
智能开关柜可靠性增长预测
Reliability Growth Prediction for Intelligent Switchgear
摘要
Abstract
This paper researched on the reliability growth process of intelligent switchgear in the trial operation phase at an unattended substation. All kinds of failure times and fault numbers were recorded in the cases of failuretruncated. If these failures were corrected immediately, the number of intelligent switchgear failure occurrence accompanied with repair obeys non-homogeneous Poisson process according to Laplace hypothesis-testing theory.Conditional distribution method was applied to the prediction of next failure time of intelligent switchgear; predictor and prediction intervals of the future failure time were given. And comparing the results of prediction with the test data, it indicates that the conditional distribution method can obtain more accurate reliability prediction for intelligent switchgear, which has advantages to the security and stability of power systems. The results provide the basis for the earlier detection of hidden dangers and potential power off accident, improve the intelligent degree of unattended substation and make the distribution system more secure, economic and reliable.关键词
无人值守变电站/智能开关柜/条件分布预测理论/可靠性增长预测/未来故障时间Key words
unattended substation/intelligent switchgear/conditional distribution prediction theory/reliability growth prediction/future failure time分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王丽,王景芹,刘建波,孙强..智能开关柜可靠性增长预测[J].电器与能效管理技术,2018,(24):27-31,5.基金项目
河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2016202134) （E2016202134）
天津市高等学校本科教学改革与质量建设研究计划项目(171006107C) （171006107C）
