林业科学2019，Vol.55Issue(3)：72-78,7.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20190308
杉木单木枯损率与初植密度、竞争和气候因子的关系
Tree Mortality in Relation to Planting Density, Competition and Climate Factors for Chinese Fir Plantation in Southern China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]It is important to analyze the relationship between tree mortality and planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors for managing Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) well.[Method] Based on the Chinese fir data in Jiangxi Province, three widely used model for analyzing binary data which are logit, probit and cloglog link models were used to modelling tree mortality and compared with each other. Then we introduced the plot and tree random effects to the selected model in order.[Result] The result showed that the logit model was the best (AIC=4 700.419), followed by probit model, and cloglog model. Also accounting for the plot and tree random effects at the same time had the best performance, and its AUC was 0.966 8, which was close to 1. In addition, we also found: mortality rate increased with increasing initial planting density and site index; decreased with increasing d/Dg; decreased with increasing mean annual temperature and previous summer mean temperature; increased with increasing previous winter mean minimum temperature and annual heat-moisture index.[Conclusion] Logit model performed well on modeling tree mortality in relation to planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors. The research of relationship between mortality and annual heat-moisture index could be helpful for managing Chinese fir plantations under the climate change.关键词
单木枯损率/杉木/连接模型/初植密度/气候变量/竞争Key words
tree mortality/Chinese fir/link models/initial planting density/climate/competition分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张雄清,王翰琛,鲁乐乐,陈传松,段爱国,张建国..杉木单木枯损率与初植密度、竞争和气候因子的关系[J].林业科学,2019,55(3):72-78,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31670634) （31670634）
中国科协青年人才托举项目(2017QNRC001) （2017QNRC001）
