水利学报2019，Vol.50Issue(4)：420-427,8.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180594
基于抽样分布理论的P-Ⅲ型分布均值的不确定性分析
Uncertainty analysis of P-Ⅲ distribution population mean based on sampling distribution theory
摘要
Abstract
In view of the uncertainty of P-Ⅲ distribution parameters, a method based on sampling distribution theory is proposed. Firstly, with the concept of sampling distribution and characteristic function, the sample mean distribution function is deduced. And then, an auxiliary random variable is constructed with its distribution function deduced. Then, the confidence interval of population mean is obtained by combining the upper and lower probability points in the case of the known variation coefficient and the known skewness coefficient. The method is applied to Shangyoujiang Basin, and the confidence interval of designed flood peak is reasonable. The theoretical deduction shows that the sample mean and the auxiliary random variables still obey the P-Ⅲ distribution, and the distribution parameters of the auxiliary random variables are only related to the variation coefficient and the skewness coefficient, and have nothing to do with the population mean of the whole. The application results show that it is feasible and effective to study the uncertainty of P-Ⅲ distribution population mean based on the sampling distribution theory.关键词
抽样分布/P-Ⅲ型分布/不确定性/样本均值/总体均值Key words
sampling distribution/P-Ⅲ distribution/uncertainty/sample mean/population mean分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘可新,胡宇丰,李匡,刘鹏,梁犁丽..基于抽样分布理论的P-Ⅲ型分布均值的不确定性分析[J].水利学报,2019,50(4):420-427,8.基金项目
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(AU0145B202019) （AU0145B202019）
